Congressional District Research

2026 General Election

Image, Ballot, and Issue Testing
Fall 2026

Presentation labels anonymized

Candidate A Image

Trend: Candidate A Image7/10 → 9/30

Response	7/10	9/30	Chg
Favorable	53%	52%	-1
Unfavorable	23%	28%	+5
Unsure	16%	17%	+1
Never heard	7%	3%	-4

Favorable

52%

Unfavorable

28%

Unsure

17%

Never heard

Full Question:

What is your opinion of Candidate A?

Cross-Tab Signal

Candidate A is 52% favorable to 28% unfavorable. Republicans are 78% favorable; independents run 44% unfavorable to 26% favorable. Among Persuadables, 23% are favorable, 43% unfavorable and 34% unsure: the group with the most room to move.

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Unsure	Never heard
Republican	78	5	15	2
Democrat	4	78	15	3
Ind/Other	26	44	24	6
Female	52	29	18	2
Male	53	26	17	5
18-34	35	29	27	9
35-44	36	31	25	8
45-54	52	27	17	4
55-64	59	24	13	3
65+	57	28	14	0
Conservative	77	6	15	3
Moderate	27	44	25	4
Liberal	1	83	13	4
White	54	27	16	3
Non-White	24	33	35	8
HS	62	19	16	3
Some College	50	26	21	3
College	46	32	16	6
Grad+	30	56	12	2
4 of 4	60	28	11	1
3 of 4	57	22	17	4
2 of 4	35	27	30	7
1 of 4	22	42	32	4
0 of 4	28	23	38	11
Market 1	51	26	21	2
Market 3	56	27	13	4
Market 2	49	30	18	2
Market 4	54	24	12	10
Rural	59	24	14	4
Suburban	45	31	23	2
Urban	38	44	10	8
Candidate A Base	67	16	14	3
Persuadable	23	43	34	0
Candidate B Base	14	66	16	4

Candidate A Open-Ended

389 Verbatim Responses Some responses fit into multiple themes

Desire More Access

37%

Trump Loyalty

34%

Conservative Values

26%

Personal Integrity

23%

Helped Constituents

Full Question:

What comes to mind when thinking of Candidate A?

Desire More Access

Respondents criticize Candidate A for being ineffective, unresponsive, and absent from constituent engagement.

"He's never available….."
"Refuses to meet or answer questions or help constituents. Answers to emails are insultingly bad."

Trump Loyalty

Critics frequently describe Candidate A as a Trump loyalist who uncritically follows Trump's agenda without independent judgment.

"He stands by what Trump says!"
"He supports Donald Trumps Agenda!"

Conservative Values

Supporters view Candidate A as a champion of conservative principles, traditional values, and common-sense governance.

"His Conservative Values."
"Small government, low taxes, common sense law enforcement."

Personal Integrity

Supporters praise Candidate A for his honesty, hard work, trustworthiness, and character as a person of integrity.

"Honest, hardworking, regular guy & not a power hungry self-serving politician"
"Faithfully reliable conservative fighting for the issues that concern me and my family most. Integrity. Trustworthy."

Helped Constituents

Respondents who cite Candidate A's constituent work describe him as helpful and responsive to them personally; complaints about access and responsiveness fall under Desire More Access.

"Candidate A always sticks up for the blue collar workers he represents."
"He has been helpful to me in the past"

	Desire More Access	Trump Loyalty	Conservative Values	Personal Integrity	Helped Constituents
Republican	23	23	37	26	12
Democrat	52	45	13	15	0
Ind/Other	49	46	18	22	1
Female	34	35	23	22	10
Male	40	33	30	23	2
18-34	19	43	44	8	0
35-44	30	38	16	9	20
45-54	54	35	24	36	0
55-64	30	27	33	31	9
65+	42	36	21	21	4
Conservative	26	29	32	25	9
Moderate	47	42	14	17	8
Liberal	52	41	21	20	0
White	37	35	27	23	6
Non-White	38	18	15	24	10
HS	20	34	32	24	12
Some College	50	38	20	26	0
College	45	31	23	20	6
Grad+	44	34	27	19	3
4 of 4	41	31	26	21	9
3 of 4	26	35	34	16	3
2 of 4	25	46	12	36	0
1 of 4	28	43	41	15	0
0 of 4	48	42	27	39	0
Region 1	46	36	22	13	9
Region 2	30	36	34	25	3
Region 3	32	33	27	36	1
Region 4	41	26	13	17	24
Rural	33	34	34	25	5
Suburban	38	34	19	20	9
Urban	68	37	6	23	0

Candidate B Image

Trend: Candidate B Image7/10 → 9/30

Response	7/10	9/30	Chg
Favorable	15%	24%	+9
Unfavorable	28%	41%	+13
Unsure	19%	19%	0
Never heard	39%	16%	-23

Favorable

24%

Unfavorable

41%

Unsure

19%

Never heard

16%

Full Question:

What is your opinion of Candidate B?

Cross-Tab Signal

Candidate B is 24% favorable to 41% unfavorable, with 35% unsure or never heard of her. Democrats are 81% favorable; Republicans 61% unfavorable. Persuadables lean favorable 43% to 22%, with 35% not yet formed.

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Unsure	Never heard
Republican	4	61	16	19
Democrat	81	2	12	5
Ind/Other	28	22	33	16
Female	26	40	22	12
Male	22	42	17	19
18-34	27	41	21	11
35-44	21	39	22	18
45-54	21	40	14	25
55-64	19	46	23	12
65+	27	40	18	15
Conservative	5	61	15	18
Moderate	37	18	29	16
Liberal	75	2	17	6
White	24	42	19	15
Non-White	24	26	24	26
HS	15	53	15	17
Some College	25	32	25	18
College	29	36	22	13
Grad+	48	23	19	10
4 of 4	24	45	18	13
3 of 4	18	45	22	15
2 of 4	20	35	21	24
1 of 4	43	24	14	19
0 of 4	30	15	31	24
Market 1	29	45	21	5
Market 3	24	36	21	19
Market 2	19	42	16	23
Market 4	24	37	16	23
Rural	21	44	18	17
Suburban	26	38	22	15
Urban	48	27	20	5
Candidate A Base	12	53	17	17
Persuadable	43	22	26	9
Candidate B Base	57	9	24	10

Candidate B Open-Ended

340 Verbatim Responses Some responses fit into multiple themes

For the People

52%

Far Left Extremist

26%

Bad Marketing

10%

No Opinion

14%

Full Question:

What comes to mind when thinking of Candidate B?

For the People

Respondents praise the candidate as a dedicated, honest fighter who listens to constituents and will work to improve the lives of ordinary people.

"Life-long fighter for the average American. Independent thinker. Not beholden to big money. Wants the basics that everyone needs: healthcare, education, housing. Will protect democracy, the basis for everything we need to accomplish."
"She takes a lot of notes about what matters most to people in her district."

Far Left Extremist

Respondents characterize the candidate as a far-left radical, socialist, or communist whose ideology threatens American values and freedoms.

"She's a socialist communist should be thrown out of the country"
"Liberal left, socialism, I'll take from the rich to give to the poor, all of a sudden is claiming to be against data centers now that it's popular."

Bad Marketing

Respondents criticize the candidate's campaign messaging and advertisements as vague, condescending, or ineffective.

"A condescending ad with bluegrass music intended to target the people she has no plans to actually represent."
"None of her advertisements actually tell me anything about what she stands for. She just mouths generalities but doesn't address what she stands for or anything specific she plans to do if elected."

No Opinion

Respondents express uncertainty, lack of knowledge, or have no clear opinion about the candidate.

"Who knows?? Probably lies or un reliable."
"I don't know much about her but I really don't think she is fully aware of the task in front of her."

	For the People	Far Left Extremist	Bad Marketing	No Opinion
Republican	44	31	13	14
Democrat	66	17	3	14
Ind/Other	53	24	13	13
Female	48	21	16	16
Male	56	32	4	10
18-34	43	36	20	6
35-44	31	41	20	8
45-54	59	24	2	19
55-64	53	26	9	13
65+	57	20	8	16
Conservative	45	33	9	15
Moderate	51	23	21	7
Liberal	66	15	2	17
White	51	26	11	14
Non-White	63	25	0	12
HS	38	27	21	14
Some College	61	25	0	16
College	62	26	3	13
Grad+	54	26	10	11
4 of 4	53	23	10	16
3 of 4	47	42	0	10
2 of 4	37	23	34	6
1 of 4	65	24	0	11
0 of 4	76	16	3	5
Region 1	50	29	11	11
Region 2	53	26	12	12
Region 3	53	26	2	19
Region 4	51	13	27	17
Rural	58	31	5	8
Suburban	44	19	17	21
Urban	60	38	3	0

Ballot

Trend: Ballot7/10 → 9/30

Response	7/10	9/30	Chg
Cand. A, R	64%	59%	-5
Cand. B, D	27%	29%	+2
Undecided	9%	12%	+3

Cand. A, R

59%

Cand. B, D

29%

Undecided

12%

Full Question:

If the November 3rd general election for Sample Congressional District were held today, who would you vote for?

Cand. A, Republican
Cand. B, Democrat
Undecided

Cross-Tab Signal

Candidate A leads 59 to 29 with 12% undecided, from 64 to 27 in July. Republicans are 88% Candidate A and Democrats 96% Candidate B; independents go 40% Candidate B, 35% Candidate A, 25% undecided. Candidate A holds 76% of his Base. Persuadables split 42% Candidate B, 27% Candidate A, 31% undecided, and they are 38% of all undecided voters.

	Cand. A, R	Cand. B, D	Undecided
Republican	88	3	9
Democrat	1	96	2
Ind/Other	35	40	25
Female	60	31	9
Male	59	28	14
18-34	43	35	23
35-44	44	26	30
45-54	59	26	14
55-64	69	25	7
65+	63	32	5
Conservative	89	4	7
Moderate	27	50	23
Liberal	4	91	5
White	62	28	10
Non-White	24	48	28
HS	68	19	13
Some College	60	30	10
College	53	36	11
Grad+	35	55	10
4 of 4	64	29	7
3 of 4	67	23	9
2 of 4	50	26	24
1 of 4	32	47	21
0 of 4	33	33	34
Market 1	54	34	12
Market 3	63	29	8
Market 2	58	25	17
Market 4	70	27	4
Rural	66	24	10
Suburban	53	33	14
Urban	34	60	6
Candidate A Base	76	16	8
Persuadable	27	42	31
Candidate B Base	18	73	8

Most Important Issue

Trend: Most Important Issue7/10 → 9/30

Response	7/10	9/30	Chg
Inflation	13%	24%	+11
Democracy	13%	16%	+3
Corruption	14%	16%	+2
Immigration	10%	10%	0
Taxes/Spending	7%	10%	+3
2nd Amendment	13%	5%	-8
Data Centers	--	2%	--
Healthcare Costs	6%	2%	-4
Abortion Rights	3%	2%	-1
Tariffs/Trade	0%	0%	0
Other	13%	13%	0

Inflation

24%

Democracy

16%

Corruption

16%

Immigration

10%

Taxes/Spending

10%

2nd Amendment

Data Centers

Healthcare Costs

Abortion Rights

Tariffs/Trade

Other

13%

Full Question:

What is the MOST important issue for your Representative in Congress to be focused on?

Inflation and rising prices
Protecting our Democracy
Ending government corruption
Immigration and border security
Taxes and government spending
Protecting Second Amendment rights
Data centers
Lowering the cost of healthcare
Reproductive freedom and abortion rights
Tariffs and trade policy
Other

	Inflation	Democracy	Corruption	Immigration	Taxes/Spending	2nd Amendment	Data Centers	Healthcare Costs	Abortion Rights	Tariffs/Trade	Other
Republican	20	15	16	15	11	7	2	1	1	0	11
Democrat	33	27	15	1	3	1	3	4	7	0	6
Ind/Other	25	12	16	4	10	2	3	4	2	0	23
Female	25	18	15	11	8	3	3	2	3	0	11
Male	22	15	17	9	12	6	1	2	1	0	15
18-34	40	5	20	2	8	10	4	1	2	0	7
35-44	25	13	16	4	3	6	2	1	2	0	27
45-54	12	13	17	12	13	7	0	2	4	0	19
55-64	19	22	16	11	10	2	1	3	1	0	14
65+	25	18	15	13	11	3	3	2	2	0	7
Conservative	20	15	15	15	12	8	2	1	1	0	12
Moderate	32	15	16	5	9	2	1	2	1	0	17
Liberal	22	25	19	0	4	0	5	6	10	0	8
White	24	17	16	11	10	4	2	2	2	0	12
Non-White	20	13	18	5	9	9	1	2	3	0	21
HS	27	13	15	11	8	8	1	1	0	0	16
Some College	24	15	17	10	12	2	4	2	2	0	11
College	17	21	15	11	11	2	3	5	5	1	10
Grad+	22	23	18	7	9	4	2	3	3	1	8
4 of 4	22	19	16	13	8	5	2	2	2	0	9
3 of 4	23	13	13	6	15	7	1	2	1	0	18
2 of 4	27	16	6	10	7	4	1	1	0	0	29
1 of 4	24	6	40	5	3	2	9	2	4	0	5
0 of 4	35	9	14	4	18	0	1	3	3	0	14
Market 1	27	12	14	9	10	7	5	3	2	0	11
Market 3	19	22	16	12	7	3	2	2	2	0	14
Market 2	25	15	18	8	12	5	0	2	1	0	15
Market 4	26	19	20	16	7	0	1	2	5	1	3
Rural	25	18	15	12	8	5	1	3	1	0	10
Suburban	21	15	17	8	12	3	3	2	3	0	16
Urban	37	7	10	10	4	13	2	2	3	0	10
Candidate A Base	21	15	17	12	10	6	1	2	1	0	14
Persuadable	22	16	13	8	15	3	3	5	2	0	14
Candidate B Base	30	24	17	3	5	1	3	3	4	0	10

SRH Candidate A

Yes

65%

29%

Unsure

Full Question:

Have you recently seen, read, or heard anything about Candidate A or his campaign for Congress?

	Yes	No	Unsure
Republican	69	27	4
Democrat	62	29	9
Ind/Other	60	33	7
Female	68	26	7
Male	63	32	5
18-34	53	38	9
35-44	52	43	5
45-54	63	34	3
55-64	72	24	4
65+	70	23	7
Conservative	69	25	5
Moderate	57	36	7
Liberal	63	30	7
White	68	27	5
Non-White	32	55	14
HS	61	35	4
Some College	70	22	7
College	64	27	9
Grad+	72	22	5
4 of 4	70	24	6
3 of 4	64	29	7
2 of 4	62	34	5
1 of 4	53	41	6
0 of 4	45	51	4
Market 1	66	26	8
Market 3	58	34	8
Market 2	70	28	2
Market 4	75	20	5
Rural	66	27	7
Suburban	64	32	4
Urban	64	27	8
Candidate A Base	69	27	5
Persuadable	69	23	8
Candidate B Base	61	29	10

SRH Method Candidate A

TV Ad

39%

Social Media/Online

24%

Mail

13%

News

Family/Friends

Radio Ad

Text

Unsure

Never Heard

Full Question:

How did you see, read, or hear about Candidate A or his campaign?

Television Ad
Social Media/Online Ad
Mail
News story/interview
Word of mouth/friends and family
Radio Ad
Text Message
Unsure
Have not heard

	TV Ad	Social Media/Online	Mail	News	Family/Friends	Radio Ad	Text	Unsure	Never Heard
Republican	39	21	18	7	6	2	3	4	1
Democrat	42	28	3	12	3	1	2	7	1
Ind/Other	34	27	10	7	7	5	3	4	3
Female	42	20	14	7	7	3	2	5	1
Male	34	29	13	8	4	2	3	5	2
18-34	28	38	1	4	4	1	5	16	3
35-44	21	26	31	6	5	4	0	6	0
45-54	42	29	9	4	7	1	5	4	0
55-64	33	28	17	11	4	4	0	1	2
65+	46	17	12	8	7	2	3	4	2
Conservative	37	22	19	6	6	2	3	3	1
Moderate	47	24	7	7	2	1	2	6	3
Liberal	31	31	6	12	8	3	1	7	2
White	38	24	14	8	6	2	3	4	1
Non-White	45	24	1	2	3	9	1	11	4
HS	43	25	17	6	2	3	2	2	0
Some College	43	21	14	3	8	2	4	4	3
College	31	23	10	13	5	3	1	10	4
Grad+	28	27	7	17	12	1	3	7	0
4 of 4	41	21	17	9	6	2	1	3	1
3 of 4	31	26	14	5	5	2	5	11	1
2 of 4	43	25	5	4	3	5	4	6	3
1 of 4	52	19	0	11	10	3	0	0	5
0 of 4	14	55	0	5	3	3	10	4	5
Market 1	44	19	11	5	5	4	3	7	3
Market 2	40	28	13	5	6	2	4	1	1
Market 3	31	25	15	14	5	2	1	5	1
Market 4	37	19	21	7	7	0	0	8	0
Rural	34	27	13	9	7	2	3	4	1
Suburban	43	18	15	6	3	4	3	6	2
Urban	55	30	2	6	0	0	0	1	5
Candidate A Base	39	26	15	7	5	3	2	4	1
Persuadable	38	10	17	6	5	7	6	11	1
Candidate B Base	39	21	5	15	7	3	1	7	2

SRH Impact Candidate A

More likely

45%

Less likely

21%

No Difference

31%

Never Heard

Full Question:

Based on what you saw, read, or heard about Candidate A or his campaign, did it make you more or less likely to vote for him?

Cross-Tab Signal

Of voters who saw, read or heard about Candidate A, 45% are more likely to vote for him, 21% less likely. Republicans are 68% more likely; Persuadables 19% more, 38% less.

Impact by method · Candidate A

Channel	More	Less	No Diff	Net
TV Ad	48%	22%	30%	+26
Social Media/Online	37%	24%	40%	+13
News	34%	33%	33%	+1
Mail	58%	10%	32%	+48
Family/Friends	62%	24%	14%	+38
Text	80%	15%	5%	+65
Radio Ad	51%	35%	14%	+16

	More likely	Less likely	No Difference	Never Heard
Republican	68	2	27	3
Democrat	4	64	30	2
Ind/Other	19	38	40	3
Female	47	21	29	3
Male	42	22	33	3
18-34	26	39	20	15
35-44	37	22	41	1
45-54	39	22	37	2
55-64	43	14	41	2
65+	53	21	24	2
Conservative	66	3	29	2
Moderate	20	40	35	6
Liberal	1	65	31	2
White	47	20	31	3
Non-White	13	58	25	3
HS	56	13	30	0
Some College	45	23	26	6
College	36	20	39	5
Grad+	25	43	30	3
4 of 4	49	20	30	1
3 of 4	53	10	31	6
2 of 4	39	25	28	8
1 of 4	16	60	19	5
0 of 4	11	28	55	6
Market 1	41	25	29	4
Market 2	47	22	31	0
Market 3	45	18	33	4
Market 4	60	14	23	3
Rural	50	16	31	3
Suburban	40	26	31	2
Urban	35	40	20	5
Candidate A Base	55	10	33	2
Persuadable	19	38	36	7
Candidate B Base	19	52	24	5

Methodology & Demographics

Fielded On:: Fall 2026
Method:: Mobile Text Responses and Landline Interviews
Population & Sample Description:: 791 Likely General Election Voters
Weighting:: Age, Gender, Race, Education, Community Type, and Media Market Area
MoE:: ±3.47%

Self-Reported Party

Republican	58%
Democrat	19%
Ind/Other	23%

Gender

Female	52%
Male	48%

Age

18-34	10%
35-44	12%
45-54	14%
55-64	20%
65+	43%

Ideology

Conservative	57%
Moderate	28%
Liberal	15%

Race

White	93%
Non-White	7%

Education

HS	43%
Some College	27%
College	18%
Grad+	12%

Last 4 Generals

4 of 4	58%
3 of 4	18%
2 of 4	10%
1 of 4	7%
0 of 4	6%

Media Market

Market 1	32%
Market 2	31%
Market 3	31%
Market 4	6%

Household Income

<$50k	20%
$50-75k	21%
$75-100k	19%
$100-150k	32%
$150k+	8%

Community Type

Rural	55%
Suburban	40%
Urban	5%

For information, contact:

Research Team

President

co/efficient

coefficient.org